新政刺激改善需求 东莞楼市大吹"暖风"

房天下房天下  作者：刘雨桐  2015-04-03 00:30

[摘要] 纵观整个一季度，政策的频繁出台与落地主要集中在“两会”前后，尤其是3月底打出的“金融＋财税”政策组合拳，与2008年末出台的楼市政策极为相似，2008的楼市政策直接导致了2009年房价的疯狂上涨。那么，2015此番新政的出台，是否会刺激房价全面高涨呢？

纵观整个一季度，政策的频繁出台与落地主要集中在“两会”前后，尤其是3月底打出的“金融＋财税”政策组合拳，与2008年末出台的楼市政策极为相似，2008的楼市政策直接导致了2009年房价的疯狂上涨。

特别是，3月30日下午，央行联合财政部等部委发文，将二套房的首付比例从6成降至4成，同时二手房的营业税从之前满5年免征调整为满2年免征。那么，2015此番新政的出台，是否会刺激房价全面高涨呢？东莞房天下整合了3月27日—4月2日的数据，看看东莞楼市有什么改变。

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RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;WIDTH: 393pt;HEIGHT: 15.6pt;BORDER-: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-RIGHT: black 0.5pt solid" class="xl67" height="21" width="524" colspan="5">3.27-4.2住宅成交数据
RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;HEIGHT: 15.6pt;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: #f0f0f0" class="xl71" height="21">日期	RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class="xl70">成交量（套数）	RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class="xl70">日增涨量（%）	RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class="xl70">2014年同期成交套数	RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class="xl70">日同比2014年
RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;HEIGHT: 15.6pt;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: #f0f0f0" class="xl72" height="21">3.27	RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class="xl66">184	RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class="xl73">15.72%	RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class="xl66">68	RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class="xl73">170.59%
RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;HEIGHT: 15.6pt;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: #f0f0f0" class="xl72" height="21">3.28	RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class="xl66">175	RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class="xl73">-4.89%	RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class="xl66">114	RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class="xl73">53.51%
RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;HEIGHT: 15.6pt;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: #f0f0f0" class="xl72" height="21">3.29	RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class="xl66">138	RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class="xl73">-21.14%	RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class="xl66">109	RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class="xl73">26.61%
RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;HEIGHT: 15.6pt;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: #f0f0f0" class="xl74" height="21">3.30	RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class="xl66">201	RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class="xl73">45.65%	RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class="xl66">64	RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class="xl73">214.06%
RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;HEIGHT: 15.6pt;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: #f0f0f0" class="xl72" height="21">3.31	RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class="xl66">307	RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class="xl73">52.74%	RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class="xl66">144	RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class="xl73">113.19%
RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;HEIGHT: 15.6pt;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: #f0f0f0" class="xl72" height="21">4.1	RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class="xl66">113	RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class="xl73">-63.19%	RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class="xl66">86	RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class="xl73">31.40%
RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;HEIGHT: 15.6pt;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: #f0f0f0" class="xl72" height="21">4.2	RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class="xl66">164	RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class="xl73">45.13%	RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class="xl66">88	RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class="xl73">86.36%
RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;HEIGHT: 15.6pt;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: #f0f0f0" class="xl71" height="21">总计	RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;BORDER-: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class="xl70" colspan="2">成交套数	RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class="xl70">环比上周	RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class="xl70">同比2014年
RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;HEIGHT: 15.6pt;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: #f0f0f0" class="xl72" height="21">3.27-4.2	RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;BORDER-: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class="xl75" colspan="2">1282	RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class="xl73">3.90%	RDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid;BORDER-LEFT: windowtext;BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent;BORDER-: windowtext;BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class="xl73">90.49%

根据东莞市房地产公众信息网数据，2015年3月27日至4月2日东莞楼市住宅成交1282套，环比上周上涨3.90%，同比2014年上涨90.49%。值得关注的是，2015年单日成交量与2014同期东莞住宅成交量相比，今年东莞住宅成交量都有明显的增加，可见今年东莞住宅成交量仍处于相对高位。

由于月底各大项目集中网签，使3月30日与31日的数据表现得为突出，日增涨量大大突破，分别为45.65%与52.74%，与2014年日同比量也有较为之明显的变化，分别为214.06%与113.19%。

尽管在新政的刺激下，但东莞大部分购房者保持观望态度，4月1日-2日的成交数据趋向于平稳，4月1日的成交量为113套，日增涨量下滑63.19%，与2014年同期成交套数相比，日同比增长31.40%；4月2日的成交量为164套，日增涨量上涨45.13%，与2014年同期成交套数相比，日同比增长86.36%。

新政接连出台，大大提振了市场信心，购房者的入市意愿也势必有所增强，只是这些影响仍然停留在心理层面上，二季度楼市成交量能否真正实现上涨，还要看地方新政是否落地。就目前而言，尽管东莞部门已开始执行"5改2"新政，但二手房市场没有明显的改变。相关人士也表明，政策从国家到省再到市，具有一定滞后性，一旦政策火力全开之下，即将到来的旺季或许酝酿着一场惊人的爆发。

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